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Hong Kong 1.2% Negative Growth First Time in 10 Years Due to Demonstrations

On the 3rd of February, Hong Kong announced that its annual, preliminary GDP growth for the year 2019 declined by 1.2% compared to the previous year. An all-year negative growth has been reported for the first time in 10 years, a year following the global financial crisis in 2008. This negative growth was a result of the U.S.-China trade war and a series of massive demonstrations that started last June. 2020 continues to be a harsh year as the consumption is estimated to fall due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. The growth rate for Q4 was -2.9%. A seasonally adjusted annual rate was -0.4% marking a continuous decline for three consecutive quarters. The reporter from the Hong Kong government expressed his concerns toward the forecast for2020, commenting, “The outbreak of the coronavirus will cause a great impact on consumption, tourism, and the overall Asian economy.” The main factor for negative growth was the drop in individual consumption that occupies 70% of the GDP. Private consumption expenditure declined by 1.1%.
From the beginning of 2019, high-income consumption stalled as the Chinese economy experienced stagnation.
With the development (?) of protests that started in June, most of the Chinese group tours were canceled, leading to a great decline in sales of jewelry and cosmetics.
Fixed capital formation such as capital investment declined by 12.2%.

Hong Kong is experiencing negative growth for the third time after its return from China in 1997. The first time was in 1998 due to the Asian financial crisis with a 5.9% decline, and the second time was in 2009 after the global financial crisis from the previous year with a 2.5% decline.
The last decade saw a growth average of 2.8%, however, 2019 worsened both domestic and international economic situation due to the trade friction and protests.
The GDP of the neighboring Shenzhen in Guangdong Province surpassed Hong Kong’s GDP for the first time in 2018 and further increased the lead in 2019. The preliminary index from the statistics bureau of Shenzhen city reported a 6.7% growth in 2019. In addition to Shenzhen, other cities from mainland China that had higher GDPs than Hong Kong were Shanghai and Beijing. Guangzhou and Chongqing are catching up to Hong Kong and may possibly surpass in 2020.
Although massive protests in Hong Kong are slowing down, a negative economic impact from the outbreak of coronavirus is unavoidable. In an effort to prevent the virus from spreading, the government halted accepting tourists from the mainland. Tourist facilities including Hong Kong Disneyland have closed one after another.
In 2003, when SARS broke out, the GDP fell in the second quarter, however, it picked up to positive growth in the third quarter. Annually, 2003 marked 3.1% growth.

香港、10年ぶりマイナス成長　デモ響き19年1.2%減

香港政府は3日、2019年の実質域内総生産（GDP）速報値が前年比1.2%減少したと発表した。通年のマイナス成長はリーマン・ショック後の09年以来10年ぶり。
米中貿易摩擦や昨年6月に始まった大規模デモが直撃した。
新型肺炎の感染拡大によって消費が低迷するとの見方が多く、20年も厳しい経済環境が続く。
19年10～12月期の成長率はマイナス2.9%。
季節調整済み前期比は0.4%減と、3期続けてマイナスだった。
香港政府の報道官は20年の見通しについて「新型コロナウイルスによる感染症は消費や観光、アジア経済に大きな影響を与える」と警戒感を示した。
マイナス成長の主因はGDPの7割弱を占める個人消費の落ち込みだ。
民間消費支出は1.1%減った。19年は年明けから中国経済減速などの影響を受けて高額消費が失速。
6月に大規模デモが始まると、中国の団体客のキャンセルが相次ぎ、宝飾品や化粧品の売り上げが大きく落ち込んだ。
設備投資など固定資本形成は12.2%の大幅減だった。
1997年の中国返還以降、マイナス成長はアジア金融危機に見舞われた98年（5.9%減）、リーマン危機後の09年（2.5%減）に続く3回目。
18年までの10年間は平均2.8%の成長を達成したが、19年は貿易摩擦と大規模デモで内外の経済環境が悪化した。
香港に隣接する広東省深圳市のGDPは18年に初めて香港を上回り、19年はさらに差を広げた。同市統計局の速報値では19年の成長率は6.7%だった。
中国本土で香港を上回るのは上海、北京、深圳の3市。広州市や重慶市が香港に迫っており、20年には逆転する可能性がある。
香港はこのところ大規模デモは減っているが、新型肺炎による経済への打撃が避けられない見通しだ。
政府は感染拡大を防ぐため、本土からの個人旅行客の受け入れを止め、香港ディズニーランドなど観光施設は軒並み休園になった。
重症急性呼吸器症候群（SARS）が大流行した03年は4～6月期にマイナス成長に陥ったが、7～9月期はプラスに転じ、通年は3.1%成長だった。